Models — Worlds Dogs Tracker

updated 3 h ago · 46 Worlds series tracked · rules pre-registered 2026-10-12, before the first Worlds match · paper only, flat 1u at the real best ask incl. taker fee

Scoreboard

rule	quotes	bets	graded	won	expected	P&L	ROI	avg CLV
R1 underdog at last pre-start ask	counted	43	43	16	12.5	+10.09u	+23.5%	—
R1 underdog at last pre-start ask	all	43	43	16	12.5	+10.09u	+23.5%	—
R2 underdog at last pre-start ask, favourite mid >= 0.65	counted	30	30	10	7.0	+9.12u	+30.4%	—
R2 underdog at last pre-start ask, favourite mid >= 0.65	all	30	30	10	7.0	+9.12u	+30.4%	—
R3 underdog at T-24h ask	counted	26	26	8	7.2	+3.82u	+14.7%	-0.9c
R3 underdog at T-24h ask	all	26	26	8	7.2	+3.82u	+14.7%	-0.9c

expected = wins implied by the prices paid; an edge shows up as won > expected. Counted = underdog quote passed the gate (spread < 2¢, >$100 within 4¢).

Upcoming

start	stage	match	underdog	ask	fav mid	book	R1	R2
Nov 14 19:00 UTC	Worlds Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G BO5	Bilibili Gaming	0.38	0.62	1c/$1,808,261	bet	favourite mid 0.62 < 0.65

live view from the latest snapshot; the bet is fixed at the last snapshot before the scheduled start.

Placed (paper)

start	match	rule	underdog	price	fav mid	counted	result	P&L
Nov 08 22:10 UTC	Bilibili Gaming vs T1	R1	T1	0.44	0.56	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 08 22:10 UTC	Bilibili Gaming vs T1	R2	favourite mid 0.56 < 0.65
Nov 08 22:10 UTC	Bilibili Gaming vs T1	R3	T1	0.44	0.56	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 07 22:05 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G	R1	Invictus Gaming	0.21	0.80	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 07 22:05 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G	R2	Invictus Gaming	0.21	0.80	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 07 22:05 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G	R3	Invictus Gaming	0.20	0.81	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 06 22:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs T1	R1	Karmine Corp	0.18	0.82	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 06 22:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs T1	R2	Karmine Corp	0.18	0.82	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 06 22:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs T1	R3	Karmine Corp	0.18	0.82	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 05 22:10 UTC	Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming	R1	Dplus KIA	0.42	0.58	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 05 22:10 UTC	Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming	R2	favourite mid 0.58 < 0.65
Nov 05 22:10 UTC	Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming	R3	Dplus KIA	0.42	0.58	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 04 22:05 UTC	Gen.G vs LYON	R1	ask < 0.10
Nov 04 22:05 UTC	Gen.G vs LYON	R2	ask < 0.10
Nov 04 22:05 UTC	Gen.G vs LYON	R3	ask < 0.10
Nov 03 22:10 UTC	Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming	R1	Top Esports	0.45	0.56	yes	lost	-1.00u
Nov 03 22:10 UTC	Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming	R2	favourite mid 0.56 < 0.65
Nov 03 22:10 UTC	Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming	R3	Top Esports	0.47	0.54	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 31 22:00 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming	R1	Bilibili Gaming	0.43	0.57	yes	won	+1.26u
Oct 31 22:00 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming	R2	favourite mid 0.57 < 0.65
Oct 31 22:00 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 31 18:55 UTC	LOS vs LYON	R1	LOS	0.25	0.76	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 31 18:55 UTC	LOS vs LYON	R2	LOS	0.25	0.76	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 31 18:55 UTC	LOS vs LYON	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 31 17:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI	R1	Movistar KOI	0.40	0.60	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 31 17:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI	R2	favourite mid 0.60 < 0.65
Oct 31 17:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 30 23:10 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports	R1	G2 Esports	0.22	0.79	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 30 23:10 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports	R2	G2 Esports	0.22	0.79	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 30 23:10 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports	R3	G2 Esports	0.22	0.79	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 30 20:05 UTC	Team Liquid vs LOS	R1	LOS	0.20	0.81	yes	won	+3.81u
Oct 30 20:05 UTC	Team Liquid vs LOS	R2	LOS	0.20	0.81	yes	won	+3.81u
Oct 30 20:05 UTC	Team Liquid vs LOS	R3	LOS	0.21	0.80	yes	won	+3.58u
Oct 29 22:30 UTC	Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming	R1	Top Esports	0.24	0.77	yes	won	+3.01u
Oct 29 22:30 UTC	Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming	R2	Top Esports	0.24	0.77	yes	won	+3.01u
Oct 29 22:30 UTC	Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming	R3	Top Esports	0.25	0.76	yes	won	+2.86u
Oct 29 20:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R1	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.19	0.81	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 29 20:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R2	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.19	0.81	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 29 20:05 UTC	Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R3	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.21	0.80	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 28 22:00 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs LYON	R1	LYON	0.35	0.66	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 28 22:00 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs LYON	R2	LYON	0.35	0.66	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 28 22:00 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs LYON	R3	LYON	0.36	0.65	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 28 20:05 UTC	Movistar KOI vs T1	R1	Movistar KOI	0.15	0.85	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 28 20:05 UTC	Movistar KOI vs T1	R2	Movistar KOI	0.15	0.85	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 28 20:05 UTC	Movistar KOI vs T1	R3	Movistar KOI	0.14	0.86	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 26 21:00 UTC	Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend	R1	Team Liquid	0.27	0.73	yes	won	+2.57u
Oct 26 21:00 UTC	Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend	R2	Team Liquid	0.27	0.73	yes	won	+2.57u
Oct 26 21:00 UTC	Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend	R3	Team Liquid	0.30	0.70	yes	won	+2.22u
Oct 26 19:00 UTC	LOS vs Team Secret Whales	R1	LOS	0.32	0.69	yes	won	+2.02u
Oct 26 19:00 UTC	LOS vs Team Secret Whales	R2	LOS	0.32	0.69	yes	won	+2.02u
Oct 26 19:00 UTC	LOS vs Team Secret Whales	R3	LOS	0.35	0.66	yes	won	+1.77u
Oct 26 18:00 UTC	Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming	R1	Karmine Corp	0.30	0.70	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 26 18:00 UTC	Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming	R2	Karmine Corp	0.30	0.70	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 26 18:00 UTC	Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming	R3	Karmine Corp	0.30	0.70	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 26 17:05 UTC	T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R1	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.12	0.89	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 26 17:05 UTC	T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R2	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.12	0.89	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 26 17:05 UTC	T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R3	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.12	0.89	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 25 20:55 UTC	Gen.G vs LYON	R1	ask < 0.10
Oct 25 20:55 UTC	Gen.G vs LYON	R2	ask < 0.10
Oct 25 20:55 UTC	Gen.G vs LYON	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 25 19:10 UTC	Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI	R1	Movistar KOI	0.22	0.79	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 25 19:10 UTC	Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI	R2	Movistar KOI	0.22	0.79	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 25 19:10 UTC	Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 25 18:10 UTC	Top Esports vs G2 Esports	R1	Top Esports	0.48	0.53	yes	won	+1.03u
Oct 25 18:10 UTC	Top Esports vs G2 Esports	R2	favourite mid 0.53 < 0.65
Oct 25 18:10 UTC	Top Esports vs G2 Esports	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 25 17:05 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming	R1	Invictus Gaming	0.28	0.72	yes	won	+2.45u
Oct 25 17:05 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming	R2	Invictus Gaming	0.28	0.72	yes	won	+2.45u
Oct 25 17:05 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 25 00:20 UTC	Team Liquid vs Bilibili Gaming	R1	Team Liquid	0.25	0.76	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 25 00:20 UTC	Team Liquid vs Bilibili Gaming	R2	Team Liquid	0.25	0.76	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 25 00:20 UTC	Team Liquid vs Bilibili Gaming	R3	Team Liquid	0.27	0.73	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 23:15 UTC	Dplus KIA vs T1	R1	Dplus KIA	0.44	0.56	yes	won	+1.21u
Oct 24 23:15 UTC	Dplus KIA vs T1	R2	favourite mid 0.56 < 0.65
Oct 24 23:15 UTC	Dplus KIA vs T1	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 22:10 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G	R1	Hanwha Life Esports	0.43	0.57	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 22:10 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G	R2	favourite mid 0.57 < 0.65
Oct 24 22:10 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 21:00 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales	R1	Team Secret Whales	0.31	0.69	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 21:00 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales	R2	Team Secret Whales	0.31	0.69	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 21:00 UTC	Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 20:05 UTC	LYON vs Karmine Corp	R1	LYON	0.45	0.56	yes	won	+1.16u
Oct 24 20:05 UTC	LYON vs Karmine Corp	R2	favourite mid 0.56 < 0.65
Oct 24 20:05 UTC	LYON vs Karmine Corp	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 19:00 UTC	G2 Esports vs LOS	R1	LOS	0.17	0.83	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 19:00 UTC	G2 Esports vs LOS	R2	LOS	0.17	0.83	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 19:00 UTC	G2 Esports vs LOS	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 18:05 UTC	CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI	R1	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.32	0.69	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 18:05 UTC	CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI	R2	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.32	0.69	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 18:05 UTC	CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 17:05 UTC	Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend	R1	Top Esports	0.37	0.64	yes	won	+1.62u
Oct 24 17:05 UTC	Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend	R2	favourite mid 0.64 < 0.65
Oct 24 17:05 UTC	Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 24 00:05 UTC	Team Secret Whales vs LYON	R1	Team Secret Whales	0.43	0.57	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 24 00:05 UTC	Team Secret Whales vs LYON	R2	favourite mid 0.57 < 0.65
Oct 24 00:05 UTC	Team Secret Whales vs LYON	R3	Team Secret Whales	0.42	0.58	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 23:15 UTC	LOS vs T1	R1	LOS	0.12	0.89	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 23:15 UTC	LOS vs T1	R2	LOS	0.12	0.89	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 23:15 UTC	LOS vs T1	R3	LOS	0.13	0.88	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 22:10 UTC	Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R1	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.28	0.72	yes	won	+2.45u
Oct 23 22:10 UTC	Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R2	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.28	0.72	yes	won	+2.45u
Oct 23 22:10 UTC	Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster	R3	CTBC Flying Oyster	0.29	0.71	yes	won	+2.33u
Oct 23 21:10 UTC	G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA	R1	G2 Esports	0.40	0.60	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 21:10 UTC	G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA	R2	favourite mid 0.60 < 0.65
Oct 23 21:10 UTC	G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA	R3	G2 Esports	0.40	0.60	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 20:15 UTC	Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp	R1	Karmine Corp	0.34	0.67	yes	won	+1.85u
Oct 23 20:15 UTC	Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp	R2	Karmine Corp	0.34	0.67	yes	won	+1.85u
Oct 23 20:15 UTC	Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp	R3	Karmine Corp	0.35	0.66	yes	won	+1.77u
Oct 23 19:10 UTC	Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI	R1	Movistar KOI	0.19	0.81	yes	won	+4.06u
Oct 23 19:10 UTC	Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI	R2	Movistar KOI	0.19	0.81	yes	won	+4.06u
Oct 23 19:10 UTC	Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI	R3	Movistar KOI	0.19	0.81	yes	won	+4.06u
Oct 23 18:15 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports	R1	Top Esports	0.23	0.78	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 18:15 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports	R2	Top Esports	0.23	0.78	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 18:15 UTC	Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports	R3	Top Esports	0.22	0.79	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 17:00 UTC	Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming	R1	Invictus Gaming	0.24	0.77	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 17:00 UTC	Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming	R2	Invictus Gaming	0.24	0.77	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 23 17:00 UTC	Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming	R3	Invictus Gaming	0.23	0.78	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 18 18:00 UTC	Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports	R1	MVK Esports	0.13	0.88	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 18 18:00 UTC	Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports	R2	MVK Esports	0.13	0.88	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 18 18:00 UTC	Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 17 18:00 UTC	MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports	R1	MVK Esports	0.36	0.65	yes	won	+1.69u
Oct 17 18:00 UTC	MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports	R2	favourite mid 0.65 < 0.65
Oct 17 18:00 UTC	MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 16 20:50 UTC	FURIA Esports vs Cloud9	R1	FURIA Esports	0.19	0.81	yes	won	+4.06u
Oct 16 20:50 UTC	FURIA Esports vs Cloud9	R2	FURIA Esports	0.19	0.81	yes	won	+4.06u
Oct 16 20:50 UTC	FURIA Esports vs Cloud9	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 16 18:00 UTC	MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp	R1	MVK Esports	0.15	0.85	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 16 18:00 UTC	MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp	R2	MVK Esports	0.15	0.85	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 16 18:00 UTC	MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp	R3	no T-24h snapshot
Oct 15 23:00 UTC	FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports	R1	MVK Esports	0.25	0.75	yes	won	+2.84u
Oct 15 23:00 UTC	FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports	R2	MVK Esports	0.25	0.75	yes	won	+2.84u
Oct 15 23:00 UTC	FURIA Esports vs MVK Esports	R3	MVK Esports	0.23	0.78	yes	won	+3.24u
Oct 15 18:00 UTC	Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp	R1	Cloud9	0.32	0.69	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 15 18:00 UTC	Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp	R2	Cloud9	0.32	0.69	yes	lost	-1.00u
Oct 15 18:00 UTC	Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp	R3	Cloud9	0.33	0.68	yes	lost	-1.00u

Why this rule

At First Stand, MSI and EWC 2026 (60 series, Polymarket closes) favourites won 10.4 points less often than priced (90% CI −20.5 to −1.0); backing the underdog at the close returned +53% on 44 bets (CI 0 to +110%). The same bet loses in domestic leagues (−5%). It was not specific to LCK/LPL vs the West. The sample is three events, so Worlds is the real test. R2 restricts to favourites at ≥0.65. Source: lol-model/scripts/intl_clv_split.py.

Models — Paper Trading · Worlds Dogs

Scoreboard

Upcoming

Placed (paper)

Why this rule