Models — Paper Trading · CS2 Americas

Separate Americas model (player-rated) · 199 tracked · ratings p1-v1 as of 2026-11-12 (newest map 2026-11-11) · rendered 2026-11-12 15:57 UTC · paper only

Scoreboard eligible Americas tier b/c · PM quote passed the price gate

price sourcelog-lossn
polymarket0.568181
P1 (traded line)0.548781
P1 blend (bet on this)0.552481
P2 (display-only)0.560981
P2 blend (display-only)0.557381
P4 = full stack (display-only)0.562479
P4 blend (display-only)0.559279

P1 paper book blend edge > 3% · 1/8-Kelly · 100u · net of taker fee

betshitsstakedPnLROImean CLV
322253.2u+17.10u+32.1%+0.011

Go-live checklist P1 line · paper until every box is ticked · nothing auto-trades

criterionnowmet
>= 100 graded P1 bets32/100✗
mean CLV > 0, 90% CI lower bound > 0n=4 (<20)✗
ROI net of fee > 0+32.1%✓
P1 blend log-loss < PM on scored rows0.5524 vs 0.5681✓
fix-suspect scan clean (run suspect_scan.py on this log)manual✗

Pending matches

none tracked right now

Recent results last 30 graded

start (UTC)matchP1P2P4PMwinnerbet
2026-11-11 02:00Legacy vs FURIA0.260.250.260.29FURIAno bet
2026-11-09 18:30RED Canids Academy vs Grêmio0.620.570.540.62Grêmiounrated players
2026-11-06 21:00Grêmio vs BORRACHEIROS0.520.480.480.42GrêmioGrêmio HIT 1.1u @ 0.42 → +1.44u
2026-11-06 18:30RED Canids Academy vs RUSH0.640.590.560.64RED Canids Academyunrated players
2026-11-05 21:00RUSH vs MEIA NOITE0.250.260.270.35RUSHMEIA NOITE miss 2.3u @ 0.65 → -2.38u
2026-11-05 18:30QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Grêmio0.470.470.470.48Grêmiono bet
2026-11-04 21:00BORRACHEIROS vs ALKA0.400.470.480.42BORRACHEIROSno bet
2026-11-04 18:30RED Canids Academy vs Underworld0.800.820.810.82RED Canids Academyunrated players
2026-11-03 21:00MEIA NOITE vs BESTIA Academy0.700.700.690.59MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE HIT 2.0u @ 0.59 → +1.29u
2026-11-02 21:00GODS PLAN vs ALKA———0.15ALKAno lineup data
2026-11-01 22:00100 Thieves vs Wildcard0.720.750.750.77100 Thievesno bet
2026-11-01 21:00LAG vs NuTorious0.920.920.930.95LAGno bet
2026-11-01 21:00BESTIA vs BARCA0.620.610.640.63BESTIAno bet
2026-11-01 20:00DENDELE vs Imperial0.650.670.650.59DENDELEDENDELE HIT 1.0u @ 0.59 → +0.67u
2026-11-01 17:00BARCA vs Wildcard0.230.270.240.36WildcardWildcard HIT 2.6u @ 0.64 → +1.43u
2026-11-01 15:00NAOCOPULAS vs Low Cortisol BR0.450.370.370.32Low Cortisol BRNAOCOPULAS miss 1.0u @ 0.32 → -1.04u
2026-11-01 14:00BESTIA vs 100 Thieves0.160.160.160.21100 Thieves100 Thieves HIT 2.2u @ 0.79 → +0.57u
2026-10-31 23:30Imperial vs Low Cortisol BR0.830.770.770.85Imperialno bet
2026-10-31 22:15NRG vs Wildcard0.560.610.610.62Wildcardno bet
2026-10-31 22:15100 Thieves vs Isurus0.980.970.970.98100 Thievesno bet
2026-10-31 20:00DENDELE vs NAOCOPULAS0.910.920.910.94DENDELEno bet
2026-10-31 19:30BESTIA vs Procyon0.770.730.730.74BESTIAno bet
2026-10-31 19:30Fluxo vs BARCA0.690.710.740.65BARCAno bet
2026-10-31 16:30Low Cortisol BR vs Turma do Pagode0.460.490.490.42Low Cortisol BRno bet
2026-10-31 16:15Isurus vs ShindeN0.320.310.330.17Isurusunrated players
2026-10-31 16:15Hacha vs Wildcard0.040.030.030.07Wildcardno bet
2026-10-31 13:00Bounty Hunters vs BARCA0.510.510.550.45BARCAno bet
2026-10-31 13:00Galorys vs Procyon0.760.740.740.74Procyonno bet
2026-10-31 13:00NC vs paiN0.280.260.26—NCno bet
2026-10-30 23:30DENDELE vs Turma do Pagode0.870.860.850.81DENDELEDENDELE HIT 3.0u @ 0.81 → +0.70u

P1 = frozen opponent-adjusted player box ratings on each team's predicted five (americas/P1_REPORT.md), the traded line. P2 = P1 + plus-minus residual layer; P4 = P2 + AWP-role + map comfort + Bo1 scaling (P2–P4 reports): scored, never bet. Lineup = last five + Liquipedia moves announced before match day (P5_REPORT.md); "uncertain" is recorded, not a gate. Americas events only; separate log, timer and book from the CS2 team model.