Models — Paper Trading · CS2

2574 tracked · 481 counted (bets > 0.5u) · 373 below min stake · 1435 display-only · rendered 2026-11-12 15:02 UTC (auto-refreshes every 5 min)

Scoreboard

price sourcelog-lossn
model (strict, traded)0.6807481
model (std)0.6695386
polymarket0.6347481
50/50 model+pm blend0.6491481
pinnacle (historical)0.59604

Trade-side grading vs Polymarket 1/8-Kelly stakes · 100u bankroll · non-compounding · net of 3% taker fee

filterbetshitsstakedPnLROI
edge > 0%414175761.0u-37.65u-4.9%
edge > 5%273112630.7u-18.29u-2.9%

Cumulative PnL (edge > 5% vs PM)

-18.3u

Fresh-lineup drift watch display only · fresher side (≤8 maps with its five) vs settled opp (≥9) · P0 prior: price drifts −2.5c first→close, fade@T-24h +6.7%

subsetndrift first→closefresh side wonfade @ first pricefade @ close
forward · Americas2-0.00550%+21.4%+22.9%
forward · all regions14-0.01636%+36.0%+22.6%
retro-tagged (pre 9/28) · Americas46-0.03330%+9.1%+3.9%
retro-tagged (pre 9/28) · all156-0.02740%-0.2%-5.9%

1u taker net of fee; not traded, not in the scoreboard. Revisit at ~150 forward records.

Shadow book raw model, NOT bet · the paper book sizes on the model shrunk toward the Polymarket mid by k 1 (fitted 10/13: the model adds nothing over the market) · this line records what the raw model would have bet, first fill, held, 1/8-Kelly, net of fee

gradedpendinghitsstakedPnLROI
210587299.6u-55.49u-18.5%

Pending matches bets first, then unpriced/wide, thin data last · ✓ = paper bet placed and held at that price; everything else is re-checked every 30 min until start

start (UTC)matchbomodelPM snapside / sizingspread (1st team)
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVELPH vs MAYBEbo30.580
0.579 std		0.45✓ 1.5u on LPH @ 0.45
placed 11-12 04:50 UTC · edge +13.0% then		-1.5 31% · +1.5 80%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVELavked vs DNKbo30.671
0.694 std		0.73strict: sized 0.3u ≤ 0.5u min — not tracked
std: sized 0.2u ≤ 0.5u min — not tracked		-1.5 38% · +1.5 85%
2026-11-12 09:00 · LIVEDucks vs DNKbo30.581
0.595 std		0.63display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 31% · +1.5 80%
2026-11-12 12:00 · LIVEex-Sashi Academy vs Tulparbo30.576
0.463 std		0.56display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 30% · +1.5 80%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVENoir Verse vs benched gods new five: benched gods 3 maps · EUbo30.617
0.566 std		—no PM market at snapshot-1.5 33% · +1.5 82%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVEex-INOX vs mixLVLTbo30.617
0.617 std		—display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 34% · +1.5 82%
2026-11-12 15:00 · LIVEex-Zero Tenacity vs NTbo30.779
0.735 std		—no PM market at snapshot-1.5 48% · +1.5 91%
2026-11-12 16:00Team Jerry vs Team Recrentbo30.500
0.500 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle-1.5 25% · +1.5 75%
2026-11-12 17:00Fortress vs PARTIZANbo10.490
0.511 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 17:00MTX vs regnum4gamesbo10.560
0.560 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 17:00TTG Esports vs DINERObo10.538
0.639 std		0.49watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 17:00Banger Gang vs Fire Fluxbo10.384
0.393 std		0.28watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 17:00MTX vs regnum4gamesbo10.528
0.563 std		0.49watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 17:00Fortress vs PARTIZAN new five: PARTIZAN 5 maps · EUbo10.349
0.385 std		0.49watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 18:00Spirit HU vs ENRAGEbo10.402
0.527 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 18:00Honvéd vs B8 Academybo10.473
0.506 std		0.69watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 18:00SINQU vs Spirit Academy Green new five: SINQU 5 maps · EUbo10.360
0.361 std		0.21watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 18:00Nordic Valor vs ROUNDSbo30.404
0.333 std		0.32watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle-1.5 19% · +1.5 68%
2026-11-12 18:00OldBoys FR vs Herminebo10.698
0.719 std		—no PM market at snapshot—
2026-11-12 18:00ex-RUSTEC vs Spirit Academy new five: ex-RUSTEC 2 maps · EUbo30.364
0.385 std		0.47watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle-1.5 17% · +1.5 65%
2026-11-12 18:45Team Bratishkin vs Team Recrentbo30.500
0.500 std		0.55watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle-1.5 25% · +1.5 75%
2026-11-12 19:30Growth Lab Esports vs PENSIONERSbo10.577
0.536 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 19:30NoTime vs eSubabo10.406
0.411 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 19:30DINERO vs ZOTIXbo10.541
0.396 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 19:30Banger Gang vs Younglings new five: Younglings 5 maps · EUbo10.514
0.535 std		0.54watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 19:30TTG Esports vs OLDBOYS PLbo10.405
0.393 std		0.50watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle—
2026-11-12 19:30GamersLab vs menszczysnibo10.518
0.520 std		—display only (thin data — not traded)—
2026-11-13 08:00Vitality vs MOUZ new five: Vitality 5 maps · EUbo30.522
0.526 std		—no PM market at snapshot-1.5 27% · +1.5 76%
2026-11-13 09:00Four Magic vs ASTRONbo30.698
0.668 std		0.63watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle-1.5 40% · +1.5 87%
2026-11-13 09:00BRUTE vs 33 new five: 33 5 maps · EUbo30.519
0.509 std		0.51watching · quote fails the price gate, re-checked every cycle-1.5 26% · +1.5 76%
2026-11-13 10:30G2 vs Falconsbo30.401
0.404 std		—no PM market at snapshot-1.5 19% · +1.5 68%
2026-11-13 12:00Aces vs GenOnebo30.448
0.425 std		—display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 22% · +1.5 71%
2026-11-12 15:30Prestige vs BOJONGbo30.677
0.631 std		0.84display only (divergence tripwire: model ≥15c off market — verify lineups — not traded)-1.5 39% · +1.5 86%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVEAlliance vs Four Magicbo30.851
0.872 std		0.94display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 57% · +1.5 94%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVEBalkan Outlaws vs KUUSAMO new five: Balkan Outlaws 5 maps · EUbo30.692
0.702 std		0.81display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 40% · +1.5 86%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVEINOX Division vs mixLVLTbo30.832
0.864 std		0.85display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 55% · +1.5 93%
2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVESaint Sinners vs TitanFlow new five: TitanFlow 5 maps · EUbo30.401
0.400 std		0.66display only (thin data — not traded)-1.5 19% · +1.5 68%

Recent results last 30 graded

start (UTC)matchmodelPMwinnertrade vs PM
2026-11-12 12:00FORZE Reload vs Butterfly0.6400.56ButterflyFORZE Reload miss 2.3u @ 0.56 → -2.33u
2026-11-12 09:30Spirit vs G20.6730.73SpiritG2 miss 0.5u @ 0.27 → -0.55u
2026-11-12 09:00Phantom vs Illyrians0.590—Phantomdisplay only (PM quote failed the price gate at snapshot (spread > 2c or ≤ $100 within 4c) — not traded)
2026-11-12 07:00FUT vs MOUZ0.2500.17MOUZFUT miss 0.6u @ 0.17 → -0.59u
2026-11-12 04:30FURIA vs Vitality0.3080.36FURIAVitality miss 1.9u @ 0.64 → -1.97u
2026-11-12 02:00Legacy vs Falcons0.3470.27FalconsLegacy miss 0.7u @ 0.27 → -0.68u
2026-11-11 19:00Diamant vs SINQU0.5720.47DiamantDiamant HIT 1.2u @ 0.47 → +1.33u
2026-11-11 19:00Diamant Esports vs SINQU0.4840.47Diamant Esportsdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:30BBL vs magic0.384—magicdisplay only (PM quote failed the price gate at snapshot (spread > 2c or ≤ $100 within 4c) — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:10eSuba vs The Chosen Few0.614—The Chosen Fewdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:10ZOTIX vs Vitality Academy0.596—Vitality Academyno PM price
2026-11-11 18:00HAVU vs boyband0.501—HAVUdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:00ex-Zero Tenacity vs Spirit Academy0.5170.63ex-Zero TenacitySpirit Academy miss 1.1u @ 0.37 → -1.16u
2026-11-11 18:00Rcave vs MTX0.438—MTXdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:00OLDBOYS PL vs ROUNDS0.735—OLDBOYS PLno PM price
2026-11-11 18:00Tulpar vs DNK0.3420.68Tulpardisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:00Rcave vs MTX0.415—MTXdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:00eSuba vs The Chosen Few0.6090.61The Chosen Fewdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 18:00ZOTIX vs Vitality Academy0.5910.55Vitality AcademyZOTIX miss 1.3u @ 0.55 → -1.29u
2026-11-11 18:00OLDBOYS PL vs ROUNDS0.742—OLDBOYS PLdisplay only (PM quote failed the price gate at snapshot (spread > 2c or ≤ $100 within 4c) — not traded)
2026-11-11 17:10Spirit Academy Green vs OLDBOYS PL0.360—OLDBOYS PLno PM price
2026-11-11 17:00TTG Esports vs NoTime0.599—NoTimedisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 17:00Sissi State Punks vs Team LEISURE0.493—Sissi State Punksdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 17:00Spirit Academy Green vs OLDBOYS PL0.360—OLDBOYS PLdisplay only (PM quote failed the price gate at snapshot (spread > 2c or ≤ $100 within 4c) — not traded)
2026-11-11 16:00ROUNDS vs Fire Flux0.308—Fire Fluxdisplay only (PM quote failed the price gate at snapshot (spread > 2c or ≤ $100 within 4c) — not traded)
2026-11-11 16:00ROUNDS vs Fire Flux Esports0.565—Fire Flux Esportsdisplay only (thin data — not traded)
2026-11-11 15:55Spirit Academy Green vs Banda Chuya0.550—Banda Chuyano PM price
2026-11-11 15:45Spirit Academy Green vs Banda Chuya0.550—Banda Chuyadisplay only (PM quote failed the price gate at snapshot (spread > 2c or ≤ $100 within 4c) — not traded)
2026-11-11 15:30SINQU vs KUUSAMO0.2980.43SINQUdisplay only (divergence tripwire: model ≥15c off market — verify lineups — not traded)
2026-11-11 15:00PCIFIC vs magic0.1510.18magicmagic HIT 2.3u @ 0.81 → +0.50u

model prices are snapshot-time; PM = closing where backfilled, else snapshot. Paper trading only.