Week 10 card run 36 min ago · bankroll $10,000, 1/8 Kelly capped 3%, PM fee rate 0.0 · weights weights_reweighted.json (group weights {"lines": 1.25, "turnovers": 1.25, "efficiency": 0.9, "qb": 0.9}) · injuries: nflverse report + Sleeper live (news to 2026-11-12T14:55+00:00) · fair = model, edge = model − Polymarket ask · recheck live prices before betting
| kick (UTC) | game | side | model | fair | PM ask / bid | ask size | edge | 1/8 Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 11-13 01:15 | WAS @ NYG | NYG | 53.7% | 1.86 | 0.55 / 0.54 | 518,753 | -1.3% | — |
| WAS | 46.3% | 2.16 | 0.46 / 0.45 | 236,568 | +0.3% | 0.1% · $8 | ||
| margin +1.2 home · QB J.McCarthy (sleeper depth, -0.082 epa/db) vs J.Daniels (sleeper depth, -0.045 epa/db) · inj 1.7 (Burns O, Edmunds O, Golston O) / 3.5 (McLaurin O, Patrick O, Patrick O) · 51F wind 11mph rain 0.5mm | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 14:30 | NE @ DET | DET | 64.6% | 1.55 | 0.59 / 0.58 | 2,460 | +5.6% | 1.7% · $171 |
| NE | 35.4% | 2.83 | 0.42 / 0.41 | 24,157 | -6.6% | — | ||
| margin +4.9 home · QB J.Goff (sleeper depth, +0.058 epa/db) vs D.Maye (sleeper depth, +0.007 epa/db) · inj 3.3 (Bartch O, Maddox O, Campbell O) / 5.4 (III O, III O, Vera-Tucker O) · dome | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | KC @ ATL | ATL | 45.0% | 2.22 | 0.37 / 0.36 | 993 | +8.0% | 1.6% · $159 |
| KC | 55.0% | 1.82 | 0.64 / 0.63 | 35,924 | -9.0% | — | ||
| margin -1.6 home · QB M.Penix (sleeper depth, -0.061 epa/db) vs P.Mahomes (sleeper depth, +0.022 epa/db) · inj 1.5 (Ebukam O, Jerrell O, Deablo Q) / 1.3 (Sneed O, Thornton O, Moore Q) · 56F wind 2mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | HOU @ CLE | CLE | 32.7% | 3.06 | 0.32 / 0.31 | 9,355 | +0.7% | 0.1% · $13 |
| HOU | 67.3% | 1.49 | 0.69 / 0.68 | 32,150 | -1.7% | — | ||
| margin -5.8 home · QB D.Watson (sleeper depth, -0.087 epa/db) vs C.Stroud (sleeper depth, +0.017 epa/db) · inj 2.6 (Barber Q, Ward Q, Boston Q) / 2.1 (Noel O, Jr. O, Rutledge Q) · 48F wind 12mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | MIN @ GB | GB | 59.0% | 1.69 | 0.61 / 0.60 | 166,895 | -2.0% | — |
| MIN | 41.0% | 2.44 | 0.40 / 0.39 | 24,963 | +1.0% | 0.2% · $20 | ||
| margin +3.0 home · QB J.Love (sleeper depth, +0.075 epa/db) vs K.Cousins (sleeper depth, -0.010 epa/db) · inj 4.6 (Monk O, Cooper O, Franklin D) / 1.9 (Jackson O, Oliver O, Jennings Q) · 45F wind 4mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | MIA @ IND | IND | 61.1% | 1.64 | 0.66 / 0.65 | 18,568 | -4.9% | — |
| MIA | 38.9% | 2.57 | 0.35 / 0.34 | 1,344 | +3.9% | 0.8% · $75 | ||
| margin +3.7 home · QB D.Jones (sleeper depth, -0.104 epa/db) vs K.McCord (sleeper depth, -0.100 epa/db) · inj 2.6 (Travis D, Key O, Pierce O) / 1.4 (Sieler O, Brewer Q, Achane O) · 51F wind 3mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | CAR @ NO | NO | 55.1% | 1.82 | 0.56 / 0.55 | 88,902 | -0.9% | — |
| CAR | 44.9% | 2.23 | 0.45 / 0.44 | 25,343 | -0.1% | — | ||
| margin +1.7 home · QB T.Shough (sleeper depth, -0.054 epa/db) vs B.Young (sleeper depth, -0.042 epa/db) · inj 1.8 (McCoy D, Edwards Q, Jr. O) / 3.1 (Moton O, Horn O, Legette O) · dome | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | BUF @ NYJ | NYJ | 28.3% | 3.54 | 0.21 / 0.20 | 1,298 | +7.3% | 1.1% · $115 |
| BUF | 71.7% | 1.39 | 0.80 / 0.79 | 40,364 | -8.3% | — | ||
| margin -7.5 home · QB G.Smith (sleeper depth, -0.051 epa/db) vs J.Allen (sleeper depth, +0.039 epa/db) · inj 1.6 (Sweat O, Wilson Q, Onyemata O) / 1.5 (Dawkins Q, Brown Q, McGovern Q) · 46F wind 14mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 18:00 | JAX @ TEN | TEN | 24.5% | 4.08 | 0.17 / 0.16 | 17,228 | +7.5% | 1.1% · $113 |
| JAX | 75.5% | 1.33 | 0.84 / 0.83 | 18,424 | -8.5% | — | ||
| margin -9.0 home · QB C.Ward (sleeper depth, -0.122 epa/db) vs T.Lawrence (sleeper depth, +0.051 epa/db) · inj 1.7 (Jr. O, Skoronski Q, Tate Q) / 2.9 (Harrison O, Murray O, Hainsey Q) · 53F wind 4mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 21:05 | LA @ ARI | ARI | 27.4% | 3.65 | 0.20 / 0.19 | 1,400 | +7.4% | 1.1% · $115 |
| LA | 72.6% | 1.38 | 0.81 / 0.80 | 7,746 | -8.4% | — | ||
| margin -7.8 home · QB C.Beck (sleeper depth, -0.100 epa/db) vs M.Stafford (sleeper depth, +0.024 epa/db) · inj 4.2 (Wilson O, Jr. O, Johnson O) / 4.5 (Nacua O, Adams O, Watson O) · 74F wind 3mph | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 21:05 | SEA @ LV | LV | 39.4% | 2.54 | 0.28 / 0.27 | 4,457 | +11.4% | 2.0% · $198 |
| SEA | 60.6% | 1.65 | 0.73 / 0.72 | 6,689 | -12.4% | — | ||
| margin -3.5 home · QB F.Mendoza (sleeper depth, -0.100 epa/db) vs D.Lock (sleeper depth, -0.040 epa/db) · inj 0.3 (Fatukasi Q, IV Q, III Q) / 2.1 (Nelson D, Cross D, Williams Q) · dome | ||||||||
| Sun 11-15 21:25 | SF @ DAL | DAL | 42.0% | 2.38 | 0.35 / 0.34 | 31,570 | +7.0% | 1.4% · $135 |
| SF | 58.0% | 1.72 | 0.66 / 0.65 | 6,267 | -8.0% | — | ||
| margin -2.6 home · QB D.Prescott (sleeper depth, +0.038 epa/db) vs B.Purdy (sleeper depth, +0.041 epa/db) · inj 2.5 (Thompson O, Locke O, Ferguson O) / 2.1 (Stribling O, Halton O, West O) · 51F wind 12mph rain 1.2mm | ||||||||
| Mon 11-16 01:20 | PIT @ CIN | CIN | 62.9% | 1.59 | 0.64 / 0.63 | 5,593 | -1.1% | — |
| PIT | 37.0% | 2.70 | 0.37 / 0.36 | 11,351 | +0.1% | 0.0% · $1 | ||
| margin +4.3 home · QB J.Burrow (sleeper depth, +0.076 epa/db) vs A.Rodgers (sleeper depth, -0.084 epa/db) · inj 2.2 (Davis O, Iosivas O, Fairchild Q) / 1.7 (Jr. O, Wilson O, Harmon O) · 47F wind 4mph | ||||||||
| Tue 11-17 01:15 | LAC @ BAL | BAL | 58.2% | 1.72 | 0.67 / 0.66 | 6,639 | -8.8% | — |
| LAC | 41.8% | 2.39 | 0.34 / 0.33 | 756 | +7.8% | 1.5% · $147 | ||
| margin +2.7 home · QB J.Brissett (sleeper depth, -0.085 epa/db) vs J.Herbert (sleeper depth, -0.132 epa/db) · inj 2.4 (Robinson O, Gwyn O, Wiggins Q) / 3.5 (Slater O, Penning O, Jr. O) · 46F wind 3mph | ||||||||
Every Polymarket side the card showed with edge ≥ 2%, logged once at the first pregame card that qualified · stake = card 1/8-Kelly on a $10,000 bankroll, non-compounding · 139 bets, 124 settled, 14 pending · record 53-71 (43%) · staked $16,975 · pnl $+397 (ROI +2.3%, flat 1u +4.6%) · CLV vs Betfair close +0.50% (117) · vs PM close +11.15% (125)
| week | bets | settled | W-L | staked | pnl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16 | 5-11 | $2,230 | $+10 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | $49 | $-49 |
| 3 | 15 | 15 | 10-5 | $2,218 | $+884 |
| 4 | 17 | 17 | 7-10 | $2,463 | $-331 |
| 5 | 17 | 16 | 7-9 | $2,061 | $+570 |
| 6 | 14 | 14 | 5-9 | $2,039 | $+352 |
| 7 | 17 | 17 | 8-9 | $2,296 | $+229 |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 8-5 | $1,557 | $+319 |
| 9 | 15 | 15 | 3-12 | $2,062 | $-1,586 |
| 10 | 14 | 0 | 0-0 | $0 | $+0 |
by edge bucket (settled, flat 1u): 2-4% n=48 hit 52% roi +21% · 4-6% n=24 hit 33% roi -12% · 6-9% n=22 hit 32% roi -24% · 9%+ n=30 hit 43% roi +13%
| kick (UTC) | bet | price | model | edge | stake | result | pnl | BF close | PM close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-17 01:15 | LAC LAC @ BAL | 0.32 | 43.9% | +11.8% | $218 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 21:25 | DAL SF @ DAL | 0.33 | 41.3% | +8.3% | $156 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 21:05 | LV SEA @ LV | 0.38 | 49.5% | +11.5% | $232 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 21:05 | ARI LA @ ARI | 0.22 | 27.5% | +5.5% | $88 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | MIN MIN @ GB | 0.34 | 37.2% | +3.2% | $61 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | MIA MIA @ IND | 0.44 | 49.1% | +5.1% | $113 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | ATL KC @ ATL | 0.37 | 48.9% | +11.8% | $235 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | TEN JAX @ TEN | 0.18 | 20.5% | +2.5% | $38 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | CLE HOU @ CLE | 0.33 | 35.1% | +2.1% | $40 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | HOU HOU @ CLE | 0.68 | 70.0% | +2.1% | $80 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | NO CAR @ NO | 0.53 | 60.8% | +7.8% | $206 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 18:00 | NYJ BUF @ NYJ | 0.19 | 28.5% | +9.5% | $147 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-15 14:30 | DET NE @ DET | 0.59 | 61.7% | +2.7% | $83 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-13 01:15 | WAS WAS @ NYG | 0.45 | 49.9% | +4.9% | $112 | pending | — | — | |
| 11-10 01:15 | MIN BUF @ MIN | 0.39 | 50.5% | +11.5% | $235 | lost 23-6 | $-235 | 36.4% | 36.5% |
| 11-09 01:20 | TB TB @ CHI | 0.29 | 34.7% | +5.7% | $100 | lost 24-27 | $-100 | 27.8% | 71.5% |
| 11-08 21:25 | NE GB @ NE | 0.59 | 61.7% | +2.7% | $81 | lost 45-27 | $-81 | 60.3% | 61.5% |
| 11-08 21:25 | GB GB @ NE | 0.39 | 41.1% | +2.1% | $42 | won 45-27 | $+66 | 39.7% | 61.5% |
| 11-08 21:25 | ARI ARI @ SEA | 0.18 | 24.2% | +6.2% | $95 | lost 3-17 | $-95 | 19.0% | 78.5% |
| 11-08 21:05 | LV LV @ SF | 0.20 | 28.9% | +8.9% | $140 | lost 17-38 | $-140 | — | 79.5% |
| 11-08 21:05 | HOU HOU @ LAC | 0.67 | 69.8% | +2.9% | $108 | won 44-22 | $+53 | 65.6% | 33.5% |
| 11-08 18:00 | NYJ NYJ @ KC | 0.21 | 26.8% | +5.8% | $92 | lost 12-35 | $-92 | 19.0% | 80.5% |
| 11-08 18:00 | PHI NYG @ PHI | 0.38 | 54.2% | +16.2% | $300 | lost 19-11 | $-300 | 42.3% | 41.5% |
| 11-08 18:00 | WAS LA @ WAS | 0.31 | 38.7% | +7.7% | $139 | lost 20-13 | $-139 | 32.8% | 33.5% |
| 11-08 18:00 | MIA DET @ MIA | 0.26 | 38.7% | +12.7% | $215 | lost 19-9 | $-215 | 25.6% | 26.5% |
| 11-08 18:00 | IND DAL @ IND | 0.30 | 44.7% | +14.7% | $263 | lost 27-23 | $-263 | 34.2% | 34.5% |
| 11-08 18:00 | NO CLE @ NO | 0.54 | 58.1% | +4.1% | $112 | won 22-23 | $+95 | 69.6% | 68.5% |
| 11-08 14:30 | ATL CIN @ ATL | 0.40 | 42.5% | +2.5% | $51 | lost 34-17 | $-51 | 37.3% | 37.5% |
| 11-06 01:15 | BAL JAX @ BAL | 0.21 | 26.6% | +5.6% | $89 | lost 33-10 | $-89 | 22.6% | 22.5% |
| 11-03 01:15 | CHI CHI @ SEA | 0.39 | 42.5% | +3.5% | $72 | won 34-17 | $+113 | 37.8% | 61.5% |
| 11-02 01:20 | PHI PHI @ WAS | 0.32 | 35.8% | +3.8% | $69 | lost 10-27 | $-69 | 30.6% | 69.5% |
| 11-01 21:25 | MIA NE @ MIA | 0.24 | 37.6% | +13.6% | $223 | lost 24-19 | $-223 | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| 11-01 21:25 | DEN KC @ DEN | 0.49 | 54.0% | +5.0% | $122 | won 24-28 | $+127 | 49.9% | 49.5% |
| 11-01 21:05 | LA LAC @ LA | 0.74 | 83.2% | +9.2% | $300 | won 9-24 | $+105 | 72.4% | 73.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | MIN MIN @ DET | 0.38 | 44.0% | +6.0% | $121 | lost 15-19 | $-121 | 37.7% | 62.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | LV LV @ NYJ | 0.47 | 49.2% | +2.2% | $51 | won 38-33 | $+58 | 45.6% | 53.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | IND IND @ JAX | 0.20 | 22.4% | +2.4% | $37 | lost 7-42 | $-37 | 18.0% | 81.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | PIT CLE @ PIT | 0.64 | 66.1% | +2.1% | $73 | won 6-27 | $+41 | 65.8% | 65.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | BUF BAL @ BUF | 0.63 | 78.5% | +15.5% | $300 | won 10-36 | $+176 | 61.9% | 61.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | ATL ATL @ TB | 0.45 | 47.2% | +2.2% | $50 | lost 0-16 | $-50 | 46.2% | 54.5% |
| 11-01 18:00 | ARI ARI @ DAL | 0.26 | 29.2% | +3.2% | $53 | won 33-30 | $+151 | 23.0% | 75.5% |
| 10-30 00:15 | GB CAR @ GB | 0.64 | 66.5% | +2.5% | $86 | won 19-27 | $+48 | 53.2% | 63.5% |
| 10-27 00:15 | PHI DAL @ PHI | 0.35 | 43.8% | +8.8% | $170 | lost 38-21 | $-170 | 30.1% | 33.5% |
| 10-26 00:20 | SEA KC @ SEA | 0.55 | 57.5% | +2.5% | $69 | won 3-20 | $+56 | — | 58.5% |
| 10-26 00:20 | KC KC @ SEA | 0.43 | 45.2% | +2.2% | $49 | lost 3-20 | $-49 | — | 58.5% |
| 10-25 20:25 | LV LA @ LV | 0.34 | 46.3% | +12.3% | $233 | lost 35-21 | $-233 | 36.9% | 38.5% |
| 10-25 20:25 | DET GB @ DET | 0.63 | 65.5% | +2.5% | $83 | won 17-20 | $+49 | 66.5% | 65.5% |
| 10-25 20:05 | ARI DEN @ ARI | 0.33 | 41.5% | +8.5% | $159 | lost 30-16 | $-159 | 31.8% | 32.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | CAR TB @ CAR | 0.61 | 65.9% | +4.9% | $157 | lost 43-13 | $-157 | 60.3% | 59.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | ATL SF @ ATL | 0.37 | 45.9% | +8.9% | $176 | won 20-29 | $+300 | 42.8% | 41.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | NYG NYG @ HOU | 0.21 | 23.0% | +2.0% | $32 | won 27-21 | $+120 | 18.0% | 80.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | MIA MIA @ NYJ | 0.33 | 44.5% | +11.5% | $214 | won 28-25 | $+434 | 45.5% | 64.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | MIN IND @ MIN | 0.72 | 74.2% | +2.2% | $96 | won 10-16 | $+37 | 77.6% | 74.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | IND IND @ MIN | 0.29 | 34.5% | +5.5% | $97 | lost 10-16 | $-97 | 22.4% | 74.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | TEN CLE @ TEN | 0.46 | 50.4% | +4.5% | $103 | lost 27-24 | $-103 | 46.9% | 45.5% |
| 10-25 17:00 | CIN CIN @ BAL | 0.43 | 61.6% | +18.6% | $300 | won 35-13 | $+398 | 60.1% | 39.5% |
| 10-25 13:30 | NO PIT @ NO | 0.37 | 45.5% | +8.5% | $168 | lost 16-10 | $-168 | 39.7% | 40.5% |
| 10-23 00:15 | CHI NE @ CHI | 0.60 | 63.1% | +3.1% | $96 | won 24-30 | $+64 | 59.6% | 59.5% |
| 10-23 00:15 | NE NE @ CHI | 0.40 | 44.5% | +4.5% | $94 | lost 24-30 | $-94 | 40.4% | 59.5% |
| 10-20 00:15 | WAS WAS @ SF | 0.23 | 29.1% | +6.2% | $100 | lost 17-23 | $-100 | 22.2% | 76.5% |
| 10-19 00:20 | GB DAL @ GB | 0.52 | 61.1% | +9.1% | $237 | won 13-23 | $+219 | — | 48.5% |
| 10-18 20:25 | LAC LAC @ KC | 0.22 | 24.4% | +2.5% | $39 | lost 6-22 | $-39 | 23.0% | 77.5% |
| 10-18 20:25 | LV BUF @ LV | 0.31 | 37.1% | +6.1% | $110 | lost 33-30 | $-110 | 30.1% | 31.5% |
| 10-18 20:05 | ARI ARI @ LA | 0.15 | 19.6% | +4.6% | $68 | won 18-16 | $+385 | 12.6% | 86.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | TEN TEN @ IND | 0.26 | 28.9% | +2.9% | $50 | won 26-20 | $+142 | 28.3% | 72.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | TB PIT @ TB | 0.43 | 53.0% | +10.0% | $219 | lost 26-19 | $-219 | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | NYJ NYJ @ NE | 0.25 | 27.6% | +2.6% | $44 | lost 19-26 | $-44 | 25.3% | 75.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | NYG NO @ NYG | 0.49 | 55.3% | +6.3% | $154 | lost 34-27 | $-154 | 49.9% | 49.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | ATL CHI @ ATL | 0.38 | 66.3% | +28.3% | $300 | lost 31-23 | $-300 | 49.8% | 48.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | PHI CAR @ PHI | 0.53 | 58.8% | +5.8% | $155 | lost 25-14 | $-155 | 41.6% | 41.5% |
| 10-18 17:00 | CLE BAL @ CLE | 0.34 | 46.0% | +11.9% | $226 | won 10-13 | $+439 | 38.6% | 38.5% |
| 10-18 13:30 | JAX HOU @ JAX | 0.57 | 59.8% | +2.8% | $81 | lost 34-31 | $-81 | 54.8% | 56.5% |
| 10-16 00:15 | DEN SEA @ DEN | 0.41 | 53.1% | +12.1% | $256 | won 14-17 | $+368 | 43.5% | 43.5% |
| 10-13 00:15 | BUF BUF @ LA | 0.41 | 44.5% | +3.5% | $74 | won 37-34 | $+106 | 42.3% | 61.5% |
| 10-12 00:20 | ATL BAL @ ATL | 0.47 | 51.8% | +4.8% | $113 | lost 30-23 | $-113 | — | 62.5% |
| 10-12 00:20 | BAL BAL @ ATL | 0.42 | 48.0% | +6.0% | $130 | won 30-23 | $+180 | — | 62.5% |
| 10-11 20:25 | SEA SF @ SEA | 0.61 | 63.6% | +2.6% | $82 | lost 32-29 | $-82 | 57.9% | 58.5% |
| 10-11 20:25 | SF SF @ SEA | 0.39 | 41.1% | +2.1% | $43 | won 32-29 | $+67 | 42.1% | 58.5% |
| 10-11 20:25 | ARI DET @ ARI | 0.32 | 42.9% | +10.9% | $200 | lost 45-21 | $-200 | 30.8% | 30.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | NYG NYG @ WAS | 0.38 | 47.8% | +9.8% | $197 | push 27-27 | $-0 | 37.8% | 62.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | NO MIN @ NO | 0.46 | 48.6% | +2.6% | $60 | lost 23-13 | $-60 | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | LV LV @ NE | 0.37 | 41.2% | +4.2% | $84 | lost 17-45 | $-84 | 37.7% | 62.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | PIT IND @ PIT | 0.57 | 60.6% | +3.6% | $104 | won 22-34 | $+78 | 59.5% | 58.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | TEN HOU @ TEN | 0.26 | 35.0% | +9.0% | $152 | lost 26-3 | $-152 | 26.4% | 25.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | CLE CLE @ NYJ | 0.45 | 48.9% | +3.9% | $90 | lost 12-17 | $-90 | 42.8% | 56.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | MIA CIN @ MIA | 0.25 | 39.5% | +14.5% | $242 | lost 31-24 | $-242 | 25.9% | 24.5% |
| 10-11 17:00 | GB CHI @ GB | 0.42 | 57.4% | +15.4% | $300 | won 7-31 | $+414 | 50.2% | 48.5% |
| 10-11 13:30 | JAX PHI @ JAX | 0.74 | 77.3% | +3.3% | $158 | won 17-19 | $+56 | 77.8% | 76.5% |
| 10-11 13:30 | PHI PHI @ JAX | 0.24 | 26.7% | +2.7% | $45 | lost 17-19 | $-45 | 22.2% | 76.5% |
| 10-09 00:15 | TB TB @ DAL | 0.20 | 31.8% | +11.8% | $184 | won 24-16 | $+736 | 18.9% | 80.5% |
| 10-06 00:15 | ATL ATL @ NO | 0.42 | 44.9% | +2.9% | $63 | won 45-24 | $+87 | 48.9% | 51.5% |
| 10-05 00:20 | CAR DET @ CAR | 0.36 | 42.1% | +6.1% | $119 | won 26-32 | $+212 | — | 33.5% |
| 10-04 20:25 | SEA LAC @ SEA | 0.75 | 79.0% | +4.0% | $203 | won 23-30 | $+68 | 75.1% | 74.5% |
| 10-04 20:25 | LV KC @ LV | 0.35 | 44.7% | +9.7% | $186 | lost 30-27 | $-186 | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| 10-04 20:25 | DEN DEN @ SF | 0.43 | 47.6% | +4.6% | $101 | lost 14-24 | $-101 | 40.5% | 60.5% |
| 10-04 20:05 | MIA MIA @ MIN | 0.16 | 27.3% | +11.3% | $169 | lost 10-15 | $-169 | 19.6% | 82.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | TEN TEN @ BAL | 0.15 | 22.7% | +7.7% | $114 | lost 18-24 | $-114 | 14.7% | 85.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | CHI NYJ @ CHI | 0.63 | 72.3% | +9.3% | $300 | won 12-23 | $+176 | 63.4% | 62.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | NE NE @ BUF | 0.28 | 32.3% | +4.3% | $75 | won 29-26 | $+193 | 25.3% | 73.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | PHI LA @ PHI | 0.41 | 50.9% | +9.9% | $210 | lost 24-20 | $-210 | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | JAX JAX @ CIN | 0.44 | 52.8% | +8.8% | $196 | won 22-17 | $+249 | 44.0% | 55.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | TB GB @ TB | 0.38 | 45.9% | +7.8% | $158 | lost 17-14 | $-158 | 41.8% | 41.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | HOU DAL @ HOU | 0.57 | 59.7% | +2.6% | $77 | lost 34-30 | $-77 | 57.6% | 57.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | NYG ARI @ NYG | 0.45 | 48.8% | +3.8% | $86 | won 24-36 | $+105 | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| 10-04 17:00 | ARI ARI @ NYG | 0.52 | 54.5% | +2.5% | $66 | lost 24-36 | $-66 | 54.8% | 44.5% |
| 10-04 13:30 | WAS IND @ WAS | 0.36 | 48.7% | +12.7% | $248 | lost 30-13 | $-248 | 38.1% | 33.5% |
| 10-02 00:15 | PIT PIT @ CLE | 0.58 | 61.1% | +3.1% | $92 | lost 24-27 | $-92 | 58.9% | 40.5% |
| 09-29 00:15 | CHI PHI @ CHI | 0.38 | 57.6% | +19.6% | $300 | won 7-27 | $+489 | 37.0% | 36.5% |
| 09-28 00:20 | DEN LA @ DEN | 0.45 | 48.8% | +3.8% | $85 | won 26-30 | $+104 | — | 49.5% |
| 09-27 20:25 | NO LV @ NO | 0.62 | 66.5% | +4.5% | $149 | lost 35-27 | $-149 | 63.6% | 64.5% |
| 09-27 20:25 | DAL BAL @ DAL | 0.41 | 46.5% | +5.5% | $116 | lost 34-31 | $-116 | 39.3% | 38.5% |
| 09-27 20:05 | TB MIN @ TB | 0.47 | 51.9% | +4.9% | $116 | lost 23-16 | $-116 | 49.8% | 48.5% |
| 09-27 20:05 | ARI ARI @ SF | 0.22 | 24.9% | +2.9% | $47 | lost 30-36 | $-47 | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | NYG TEN @ NYG | 0.60 | 70.0% | +10.0% | $300 | won 7-12 | $+200 | 57.2% | 56.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | WAS SEA @ WAS | 0.26 | 29.4% | +3.4% | $57 | won 31-33 | $+162 | 22.4% | 22.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | DET NYJ @ DET | 0.74 | 81.2% | +7.2% | $300 | won 24-31 | $+105 | 73.7% | 73.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | JAX NE @ JAX | 0.60 | 63.3% | +3.3% | $103 | won 6-35 | $+69 | 59.5% | 59.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | BUF LAC @ BUF | 0.76 | 79.0% | +3.0% | $155 | won 16-24 | $+49 | 75.8% | 75.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | MIA KC @ MIA | 0.14 | 31.9% | +17.9% | $260 | lost 24-10 | $-260 | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | IND HOU @ IND | 0.43 | 45.6% | +2.6% | $57 | won 17-19 | $+76 | 47.4% | 47.5% |
| 09-27 17:00 | PIT CIN @ PIT | 0.37 | 43.9% | +6.9% | $136 | won 27-30 | $+232 | 39.7% | 39.5% |
| 09-25 00:15 | ATL ATL @ GB | 0.30 | 32.1% | +2.1% | $37 | won 35-14 | $+86 | 32.6% | 68.5% |
| 09-18 00:15 | DET DET @ BUF | 0.31 | 33.7% | +2.7% | $49 | lost 31-41 | $-49 | 30.6% | 30.5% |
| 09-15 00:15 | DEN DEN @ KC | 0.44 | 50.8% | +6.9% | $153 | lost 10-31 | $-153 | 46.5% | 45.5% |
| 09-14 00:20 | NYG DAL @ NYG | 0.41 | 47.3% | +6.3% | $133 | won 20-28 | $+191 | 38.6% | 38.5% |
| 09-13 20:25 | PHI WAS @ PHI | 0.69 | 73.9% | +4.9% | $199 | won 22-24 | $+89 | 69.5% | 69.5% |
| 09-13 20:25 | MIA MIA @ LV | 0.38 | 55.0% | +17.0% | $300 | lost 13-27 | $-300 | 39.8% | 39.5% |
| 09-13 20:25 | GB GB @ MIN | 0.48 | 51.2% | +3.2% | $76 | lost 22-39 | $-76 | 43.5% | 44.5% |
| 09-13 20:25 | ARI ARI @ LAC | 0.20 | 33.1% | +13.1% | $205 | won 26-14 | $+820 | 18.3% | 18.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | TB TB @ CIN | 0.35 | 37.6% | +2.6% | $51 | lost 27-33 | $-51 | 35.3% | 35.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | TEN NYJ @ TEN | 0.54 | 61.9% | +7.9% | $214 | lost 23-10 | $-214 | 49.9% | 51.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | NO NO @ DET | 0.26 | 30.2% | +4.2% | $71 | lost 30-31 | $-71 | 24.5% | 25.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | JAX CLE @ JAX | 0.79 | 84.0% | +5.0% | $295 | won 10-34 | $+78 | 78.4% | 79.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | CLE CLE @ JAX | 0.21 | 23.2% | +2.2% | $35 | lost 10-34 | $-35 | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | CAR CHI @ CAR | 0.42 | 44.1% | +2.1% | $45 | lost 59-37 | $-45 | 40.6% | 40.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | HOU BUF @ HOU | 0.48 | 52.3% | +4.3% | $103 | lost 36-31 | $-103 | 48.9% | 48.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | IND BAL @ IND | 0.38 | 48.7% | +10.7% | $215 | lost 41-23 | $-215 | 41.2% | 41.5% |
| 09-13 17:00 | ATL ATL @ PIT | 0.28 | 31.2% | +3.2% | $55 | lost 13-20 | $-55 | 27.0% | 27.5% |
| 09-11 00:35 | SF SF @ LA | 0.35 | 39.1% | +4.2% | $80 | won 27-7 | $+149 | 35.7% | 35.5% |
slate_2026_w9_20261110T032223Z.json scored 48 h ago · home-team probabilities · closes from OddsPapi v5 + Polymarket last trade · mean CLV vs Betfair close over 1 bets +19.39% · settled pnl -3.00% of bankroll
| game | model | Betfair | DK | FD | PM | bets (CLV vs Betfair, pnl) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ MIN | 43.7% | 36.4% | 38.4% | 36.4% | 36.5% | MIN @5.88 CLV +19.4% -3.00% |
slate_2026_w8_20261103T032035Z.json scored 216 h ago · home-team probabilities · closes from OddsPapi v5 + Polymarket last trade · mean CLV vs Betfair close over 1 bets +36.20% · settled pnl -3.00% of bankroll
| game | model | Betfair | DK | FD | PM | bets (CLV vs Betfair, pnl) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ SEA | 55.0% | 62.2% | 60.6% | 62.4% | 61.5% | SEA @3.85 CLV +36.2% -3.00% |
slate_2026_w7_20261027T032046Z.json scored 384 h ago · home-team probabilities · closes from OddsPapi v5 + Polymarket last trade · mean CLV vs Betfair close over 1 bets +33.17% · settled pnl -3.00% of bankroll
| game | model | Betfair | DK | FD | PM | bets (CLV vs Betfair, pnl) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ PHI | 36.4% | 33.3% | 34.5% | 33.7% | 33.5% | PHI @1000.00 CLV +33.2% -3.00% |
slate_2026_w6_20261020T032050Z.json scored 552 h ago · home-team probabilities · closes from OddsPapi v5 + Polymarket last trade · mean CLV vs Betfair close over 1 bets +17.15% · settled pnl -2.91% of bankroll
| game | model | Betfair | DK | FD | PM | bets (CLV vs Betfair, pnl) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ SF | 71.9% | 76.6% | 78.9% | 79.1% | 76.5% | WAS @16.13 CLV +17.2% -2.91% |
Backtest 2015-2025: model log loss 0.629 vs closing market 0.612 — treat gaps above ~6% as missing news, not edge.