World P1 (player-rated, non-Americas) · display-only, never traded · 287 tracked · ratings w1-v1 as of 2026-11-12 (newest map 2026-11-11) · blend mkt 0.93 / P1 0.23, refit monthly on PM rows before 2026-11-01 · rendered 2026-11-12 15:56 UTC
| price source | log-loss | n |
|---|---|---|
| polymarket | 0.4689 | 42 |
| P1 | 0.4560 | 42 |
| P1 blend (paper bets use this) | 0.4442 | 42 |
| cut | bets | hits | staked | PnL | ROI | mean CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all eligible | 14 | 14 | 28.5u | +9.72u | +34.1% | — |
| thin: close volume < $50k (backtest cut) | 0 | 0 | 0.0u | +0.00u | +0.0% | — |
| criterion | now | met |
|---|---|---|
| >= 100 graded P1 bets | 14/100 | ✗ |
| mean CLV > 0, 90% CI lower bound > 0 | n=0 (<20) | ✗ |
| ROI net of fee > 0 | +34.1% | ✓ |
| P1 blend log-loss < PM on scored rows | 0.4442 vs 0.4689 | ✓ |
| fix-suspect scan clean (run suspect_scan.py on this log) | manual | ✗ |
| start (UTC) | match | region | tier | P1 | PM | P1 blend | PM vol | paper bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 18:00 | ex-RUSTEC vs Spirit Academy | EU | b | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.51 | $0k | ex-RUSTEC 1.0u @ 0.47 (blend 0.51) |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | Alliance vs Four Magic | EU | c | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.96 | $0k | no edge / below min stake |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | LPH vs MAYBE | EU | c | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.47 | $0k | no edge / below min stake |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | Balkan Outlaws vs KUUSAMO | EU | c | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.81 | $1k | no edge / below min stake |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | Saint Sinners vs TitanFlow | EU | c | 0.43 | 0.66 | 0.64 | $0k | no edge / below min stake |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | Noir Verse vs benched gods | EU | c | 0.57 | — | — | — | no PM market yet |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | Lavked vs DNK | EU | c | 0.59 | 0.76 | 0.75 | $0k | no edge / below min stake |
| 2026-11-12 17:00 | Banger Gang vs Fire Flux | EU | c | 0.47 | 0.28 | 0.29 | $0k | PM quote fails price gate (re-checked hourly) |
| 2026-11-12 18:00 | Honvéd vs B8 Academy | PM-only | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.71 | $0k | PM quote fails price gate (re-checked hourly) | |
| 2026-11-12 18:00 | SINQU vs Spirit Academy Green | PM-only | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.17 | $0k | PM quote fails price gate (re-checked hourly) | |
| 2026-11-12 19:30 | DINERO vs ZOTIX | PM-only | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.47 | $0k | PM quote fails price gate (re-checked hourly) | |
| 2026-11-13 09:00 | BRUTE vs 33 | EU | b | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.51 | $0k | PM quote fails price gate (re-checked hourly) |
| 2026-11-13 12:00 | Aces vs GenOne | EU | b | 0.53 | — | — | — | no PM market yet |
| 2026-11-13 15:00 | ex-UPGRADE vs Drama | EU | b | 0.69 | — | — | — | no PM market yet |
| 2026-11-12 09:00 · LIVE | Ducks vs DNK | PM-only | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.60 | $0k | unrated players | |
| 2026-11-12 12:00 · LIVE | ex-Sashi Academy vs Tulpar | PM-only | — | 0.51 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 14:00 · LIVE | INOX Division vs mixLVLT | EU | c | — | 0.85 | — | $0k | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-12 15:30 · LIVE | Prestige vs BOJONG | EU | c | 0.46 | 0.82 | 0.80 | $0k | unrated players |
| 2026-11-12 16:00 | Team Jerry vs Team Recrent | PM-only | — | 0.53 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 17:00 | Fortress vs PARTIZAN | PM-only | — | 0.43 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 17:00 | MTX vs regnum4games | PM-only | — | 0.54 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 17:00 | TTG Esports vs DINERO | PM-only | 0.59 | 0.71 | 0.71 | $0k | unrated players | |
| 2026-11-12 17:00 | MTX vs regnum4games | EU | c | — | 0.54 | — | $0k | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-12 17:00 | Fortress vs PARTIZAN | EU | c | — | 0.43 | — | $0k | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-12 18:00 | Spirit HU vs ENRAGE | PM-only | — | 0.41 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 18:00 | Nordic Valor vs ROUNDS | EU | c | — | 0.37 | — | $0k | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-12 18:00 | OldBoys FR vs Hermine | EU | c | — | — | — | — | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-12 18:45 | Team Bratishkin vs Team Recrent | PM-only | — | 0.53 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 19:30 | Growth Lab Esports vs PENSIONERS | PM-only | — | 0.53 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 19:30 | NoTime vs eSuba | PM-only | — | 0.45 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-12 19:30 | Banger Gang vs Younglings | PM-only | 0.40 | 0.54 | 0.51 | $0k | unrated players | |
| 2026-11-12 19:30 | TTG Esports vs OLDBOYS PL | PM-only | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.35 | $0k | unrated players | |
| 2026-11-12 19:30 | GamersLab vs menszczysni | EU | c | — | — | — | — | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-13 08:00 | Vitality vs MOUZ | Asia | s | 0.61 | — | — | — | tier s |
| 2026-11-13 09:00 | Four Magic vs ASTRON | PM-only | — | 0.62 | — | $0k | no lineup data | |
| 2026-11-13 10:30 | G2 vs Falcons | Asia | s | 0.41 | — | — | — | tier s |
| start (UTC) | match | P1 | PM | close | close vol | winner | paper bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 14:00 | ex-INOX vs mixLVLT | — | — | — | — | ex-INOX | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-12 12:00 | FORZE Reload vs Butterfly | 0.56 | 0.56 | — | — | Butterfly | no bet |
| 2026-11-12 09:30 | Spirit vs G2 | 0.65 | 0.72 | — | — | Spirit | tier s |
| 2026-11-12 09:00 | Phantom vs Illyrians | 0.81 | 0.73 | — | — | Phantom | Phantom HIT 2.1u @ 0.73 → +0.75u |
| 2026-11-12 07:00 | FUT vs MOUZ | 0.25 | 0.17 | — | — | MOUZ | tier s |
| 2026-11-12 04:30 | FURIA vs Vitality | 0.40 | 0.35 | — | — | FURIA | tier s |
| 2026-11-12 02:00 | Legacy vs Falcons | 0.34 | 0.28 | — | — | Falcons | tier s |
| 2026-11-11 19:00 | Diamant vs SINQU | 0.60 | 0.47 | — | — | Diamant | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 19:00 | Diamant Esports vs SINQU | — | 0.47 | — | — | Diamant Esports | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:30 | BBL vs magic | 0.34 | 0.50 | — | — | magic | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | HAVU vs boyband | — | 0.67 | — | — | HAVU | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | ex-Zero Tenacity vs Spirit Academy | 0.69 | 0.63 | — | — | ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity HIT 1.1u @ 0.63 → +0.63u |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | Rcave vs MTX | — | 0.43 | — | — | MTX | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | Tulpar vs DNK | — | 0.68 | — | — | Tulpar | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | Rcave vs MTX | — | 0.43 | — | — | MTX | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | eSuba vs The Chosen Few | — | 0.61 | — | — | The Chosen Few | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | ZOTIX vs Vitality Academy | — | 0.55 | — | — | Vitality Academy | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 18:00 | OLDBOYS PL vs ROUNDS | 0.71 | 0.81 | — | — | OLDBOYS PL | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 | TTG Esports vs NoTime | — | 0.61 | — | — | NoTime | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 | Sissi State Punks vs Team LEISURE | — | — | — | — | Sissi State Punks | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 17:00 | Spirit Academy Green vs OLDBOYS PL | 0.54 | 0.44 | — | — | OLDBOYS PL | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 | ROUNDS vs Fire Flux | 0.34 | 0.27 | — | — | Fire Flux | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 16:00 | ROUNDS vs Fire Flux Esports | — | 0.27 | — | — | Fire Flux Esports | no lineup data |
| 2026-11-11 15:45 | Spirit Academy Green vs Banda Chuya | 0.55 | 0.70 | — | — | Banda Chuya | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 15:30 | SINQU vs KUUSAMO | 0.58 | 0.43 | — | — | SINQU | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 | PCIFIC vs magic | 0.14 | 0.18 | — | — | magic | magic HIT 2.7u @ 0.81 → +0.59u |
| 2026-11-11 15:00 | 33 vs BBL | 0.39 | 0.34 | — | — | BBL | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 | Phantom vs Drama | 0.78 | 0.84 | — | — | Phantom | no bet |
| 2026-11-11 12:00 | ex-Sashi Academy vs Ducks | 0.22 | 0.26 | — | — | ex-Sashi Academy | unrated players |
| 2026-11-11 09:30 | MOUZ vs G2 | 0.63 | 0.79 | — | — | G2 | tier s |
P1 = frozen w1-v1 opponent-adjusted player box ratings on each team's last five, blended with the PM price (blend refit each month, world/REPORT.md). Non-Americas events only; CCT and other suspect events not eligible. Separate log and timer; never read by the order executor.