Prices the current map from the round score (gamma feed), with team strength anchored to the Polymarket price just before the map and updated round by round. A map marked "no round feed" is live, but gamma sends no round score for it, so it is not priced. Paper only. Rule R1: after a round result, take a side when the model is at least 8% above the cost (ask + fee), one entry per map and side, held to the map result, rounds 2-24. A bet counts only through the price gate (spread < 2c and > $100 within 4c). State updated 4s ago.
No live CS2 map with a clean pre-map anchor right now.
558 counted bets (529 settled): +4.59u, ROI +0.9%. 232 more failed the price gate (shown, not scored). 10501 round decision points logged for the forward test.
| UTC | Match | Map | Took | Score | Price | Model | Edge | Spread | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-12 12:15 | Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B | Map 2 | G2 | 1-0 | 0.07 | 0.23 | +15.2c | 0c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 12:12 | GenOne vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Group S | Map 1 | GenOne | 1-0 | 0.52 | 0.64 | +10.5c | 1c | open | |
| 11-12 10:17 | The Last Resort vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe | Map 2 | MASONIC | 0-1 | 0.50 | 0.62 | +10.6c | 1c | won | +0.95u |
| 11-12 10:13 | NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro | Map 2 | NAVI Junior | 5-6 | 0.22 | 0.31 | +8.2c | 1c | won | +3.37u |
| 11-12 10:06 | NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro | Map 2 | MOUZ NXT | 2-5 | 0.71 | 0.81 | +8.6c | 2c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 10:03 | Bad Beavers vs The Chosen Few (BO3) - United2 | Map 2 | Bad Beavers | 0-2 | 0.22 | 0.32 | +9.4c | 1c | won | +3.37u |
| 11-12 09:25 | Bad Beavers vs The Chosen Few (BO3) - United2 | Map 1 | Bad Beavers | 1-0 | 0.15 | 0.60 | +43.9c | 9c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 09:24 | NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro | Map 1 | MOUZ NXT | 2-7 | 0.66 | 0.75 | +8.1c | 1c | won | +0.49u |
| 11-12 09:15 | FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou | Map 2 | MOUZ | 1-0 | 0.30 | 0.65 | +33.6c | 1c | won | +2.22u |
| 11-12 09:14 | NAVI Junior vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro | Map 1 | NAVI Junior | 2-1 | 0.59 | 0.69 | +8.4c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 09:11 | Bad Beavers vs The Chosen Few (BO3) - United2 | Map 1 | The Chosen Few | 0-1 | 0.49 | 0.61 | +11.2c | 2c | won | +0.99u |
| 11-12 09:06 | The Last Resort vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe | Map 1 | The Last Resort | 1-0 | 0.44 | 0.55 | +10.0c | 1c | won | +1.21u |
| 11-12 08:41 | FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou | Map 2 | FUT Esports | 5-0 | 0.51 | 0.63 | +10.6c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 07:28 | FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou | Map 1 | MOUZ | 5-8 | 0.73 | 0.82 | +8.2c | 1c | open | |
| 11-12 05:55 | FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group | Map 2 | Vitality | 1-0 | 0.19 | 0.60 | +40.5c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 05:25 | FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group | Map 2 | FURIA | 4-0 | 0.46 | 0.59 | +11.7c | 1c | won | +1.12u |
| 11-12 03:25 | Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals G | Map 2 | Legacy | 1-0 | 0.11 | 0.46 | +34.1c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-12 02:15 | Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals G | Map 1 | Legacy | 1-0 | 0.17 | 0.42 | +24.2c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 19:34 | Walczaki vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europ | Map 2 | Walczaki | 2-0 | 0.58 | 0.70 | +10.6c | 2c | won | +0.69u |
| 11-11 19:25 | Walczaki vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europ | Map 2 | The Last Resort | 2-4 | 0.46 | 0.59 | +11.3c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 18:51 | Walczaki vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europ | Map 1 | The Last Resort | 10-11 | 0.55 | 0.65 | +9.2c | 1c | won | +0.78u |
| 11-11 18:26 | Walczaki vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europ | Map 1 | Walczaki | 6-3 | 0.66 | 0.75 | +8.2c | 4c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 17:59 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South | Map 2 | underw0rld | 7-11 | 0.66 | 0.81 | +13.4c | 1c | won | +0.49u |
| 11-11 17:12 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South | Map 2 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1-2 | 0.52 | 0.64 | +10.4c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 16:15 | Nexus vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Grou | Map 2 | BakS eSports | 2-4 | 0.49 | 0.61 | +11.0c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 16:10 | Nexus vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Grou | Map 2 | Nexus | 1-2 | 0.33 | 0.45 | +10.7c | 1c | won | +1.93u |
| 11-11 16:07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South | Map 1 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1-0 | 0.66 | 0.75 | +8.1c | 1c | won | +0.49u |
| 11-11 15:11 | Nexus vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CCT Europe Grou | Map 1 | Nexus | 3-0 | 0.56 | 0.67 | +10.0c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 15:05 | FORZE Reload vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Gr | Map 1 | MASONIC | 0-1 | 0.28 | 0.39 | +9.7c | 1c | open | |
| 11-11 13:25 | G2 Ares vs Lunacy Team (BO3) - European Pro L | Map 2 | G2 Ares | 5-0 | 0.76 | 0.86 | +9.2c | 1c | won | +0.30u |
| 11-11 13:21 | GenOne vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CCT Eu | Map 2 | GenOne | 4-5 | 0.28 | 0.37 | +8.2c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 13:15 | G2 Ares vs Lunacy Team (BO3) - European Pro L | Map 2 | Lunacy Team | 3-1 | 0.18 | 0.30 | +11.0c | 4c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 13:14 | Nexus vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Group St | Map 2 | MOUZ NXT | 1-1 | 0.23 | 0.32 | +8.1c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 13:05 | GenOne vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CCT Eu | Map 2 | Inner Circle Academy | 0-3 | 0.63 | 0.75 | +10.4c | 1c | won | +0.56u |
| 11-11 12:40 | Esport Academy Copenhagen vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) | Map 2 | EYEBALLERS | 0-1 | 0.62 | 0.71 | +8.2c | 1c | won | +0.58u |
| 11-11 12:08 | GenOne vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CCT Eu | Map 1 | GenOne | 2-1 | 0.47 | 0.57 | +8.6c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 12:07 | Nexus vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Group St | Map 1 | MOUZ NXT | 0-1 | 0.29 | 0.39 | +8.6c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 11:56 | G2 Ares vs Lunacy Team (BO3) - European Pro L | Map 1 | G2 Ares | 1-0 | 0.37 | 0.60 | +21.8c | 1c | won | +1.62u |
| 11-11 10:45 | MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B | Map 2 | MOUZ | 0-1 | 0.47 | 0.59 | +10.9c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 09:52 | MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B | Map 1 | G2 | 4-6 | 0.32 | 0.44 | +10.6c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 07:59 | Spirit vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Gr | Map 2 | FUT Esports | 0-5 | 0.44 | 0.54 | +8.6c | 1c | won | +1.21u |
| 11-11 07:55 | Spirit vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Gr | Map 2 | Spirit | 0-1 | 0.61 | 0.73 | +10.6c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 07:22 | Spirit vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Gr | Map 1 | Spirit | 11-8 | 0.83 | 0.92 | +8.1c | 1c | won | +0.19u |
| 11-11 06:07 | Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals | Map 2 | Team Falcons | 9-9 | 0.29 | 0.39 | +9.1c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 03:35 | Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A | Map 2 | Legacy | 0-1 | 0.08 | 0.29 | +20.7c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 03:25 | Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A | Map 2 | FURIA | 0-3 | 0.69 | 0.78 | +8.2c | 1c | won | +0.43u |
| 11-11 02:25 | Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A | Map 1 | Legacy | 1-0 | 0.13 | 0.42 | +28.4c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 01:24 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Rush (BO3) - CCT South Ameri | Map 2 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 4-0 | 0.67 | 0.80 | +12.4c | 3c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-11 00:51 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Rush (BO3) - CCT South Ameri | Map 2 | Rush | 0-2 | 0.46 | 0.57 | +10.0c | 1c | won | +1.12u |
| 11-10 22:57 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Rush (BO3) - CCT South Ameri | Map 1 | Rush | 11-12 | 0.63 | 0.77 | +13.4c | 2c | won | +0.56u |
| 11-10 22:14 | QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Rush (BO3) - CCT South Ameri | Map 1 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 0-1 | 0.21 | 0.32 | +9.9c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-10 20:47 | Isurus vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - CCT Sout | Map 2 | Isurus | 12-9 | 0.83 | 0.93 | +9.6c | 1c | won | +0.19u |
| 11-10 20:14 | Isurus vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - CCT Sout | Map 2 | RED Canids Academy | 2-3 | 0.36 | 0.49 | +11.7c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-10 16:47 | MEIA NOITE vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South | Map 1 | BORRACHEIROS | 11-12 | 0.57 | 0.71 | +13.3c | 1c | open | |
| 11-10 16:20 | Butterfly vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Group | Map 2 | Butterfly | 4-2 | 0.60 | 0.71 | +10.2c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-10 16:19 | G2 Ares vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Sta | Map 2 | G2 Ares | 4-2 | 0.55 | 0.66 | +10.2c | 2c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-10 16:10 | G2 Ares vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Sta | Map 2 | maybe | 2-0 | 0.23 | 0.35 | +11.1c | 1c | won | +3.19u |
| 11-10 16:05 | MEIA NOITE vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South | Map 1 | MEIA NOITE | 1-0 | 0.58 | 0.67 | +8.2c | 1c | open | |
| 11-10 15:31 | Butterfly vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Group | Map 1 | Honvéd | 6-8 | 0.37 | 0.46 | +8.2c | 1c | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-10 15:14 | G2 Ares vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Sta | Map 1 | maybe | 2-3 | 0.39 | 0.50 | +10.3c | 1c | won | +1.49u |
Map log loss, lower is better. PM minute prices, clock aligned per map (bo3.gg round logs run ~3.5 min early). "Blend weight" = how much of the model's gap from the market to add (0 = market already right). Prices are prints, not executable quotes, so this is evidence, not a P&L.
| Market price taken | PM | Model | Blend weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| +30 s after round start | 0.503 | 0.497 | 0.55 |
| +60 s | 0.496 | 0.497 | 0.48 |
| +120 s | 0.483 | 0.498 | 0.39 |
Edge sits in tier B (tier S ≈ +1c), big leads (market underconfident), and the half-time leader going CT. Economy adds little beyond score + side.