v2 card generated 5 min ago (v1 slate 66 min ago) · 0 matches · probabilities are for the first listed team · refreshes hourly
none this cycle
no H1 / H3 situations on the slate
| when | match | cat | PM | v1 | v2 | edge | drivers | rule flags | call |
|---|
| strategy | logged | graded | won | P&L | ROI | avg CLV | beat close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2 model bets (1/8 Kelly) | 13 | 13 | 4 | +2.25u | +16.7% | +12.2c | 11/13 |
| H1 weak-schedule fade (1u) | 7 | 7 | 3 | +0.06u | +0.9% | -2.6c | 2/7 |
| logged | strategy | match | side | price | close | result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 03:05 | v2 | Gentle Mates GC vs KRÜ BLAZE | KRÜ BLAZE | 0.35 | 0.36 | won | +2.06u |
| 2026-10-31 10:05 | v2 | Shopify Rebellion Gold vs KRÜ BLAZE | KRÜ BLAZE | 0.21 | 0.26 | won | +4.48u |
| 2026-10-30 22:00 | v2 | KRÜ BLAZE vs MIBR GC | KRÜ BLAZE | 0.27 | 0.39 | won | +2.46u |
| 2026-10-28 21:50 | h1 | Gentle Mates GC vs Shopify Rebellion Gold | Gentle Mates GC | 0.49 | 0.42 | won | +0.97u |
| 2026-10-28 12:51 | v2 | KRÜ BLAZE vs Team Liquid Brazil | KRÜ BLAZE | 0.26 | 0.25 | won | +2.39u |
| 2026-10-27 01:50 | h1 | Shopify Rebellion Gold vs KRÜ BLAZE | KRÜ BLAZE | 0.23 | 0.27 | lost | -1.00u |
| 2026-10-27 01:50 | v2 | Shopify Rebellion Gold vs KRÜ BLAZE | KRÜ BLAZE | 0.23 | 0.27 | lost | -1.22u |
| 2026-10-24 19:36 | v2 | G2 Gozen vs MIBR GC | G2 Gozen | 0.27 | 0.59 | lost | -0.89u |
| 2026-10-24 12:36 | h1 | CGN Esports vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.49 | 0.44 | lost | -1.00u |
| 2026-10-23 07:36 | h1 | Eternal Fire vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.42 | 0.38 | won | +1.29u |
| 2026-10-22 11:35 | h1 | CGN Esports vs Habos Babos | Habos Babos | 0.06 | 0.06 | lost | -1.00u |
| 2026-10-21 11:35 | v2 | KRÜ BLAZE vs Gen.G GC | Gen.G GC | 0.36 | 0.34 | lost | -0.99u |
| 2026-10-21 08:35 | v2 | Unsettled Resentment vs Octagonal Disposition Gaming | Octagonal Disposition Gaming | 0.40 | 0.45 | lost | -1.20u |
| 2026-10-18 09:20 | v2 | LOUD vs Team Vitality | Team Vitality | 0.21 | 0.42 | lost | -0.96u |
| 2026-10-17 10:16 | v2 | Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 0.38 | 0.66 | lost | -1.08u |
| 2026-10-16 13:05 | v2 | 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports | G2 Esports | 0.18 | 0.35 | lost | -0.79u |
| 2026-10-10 09:42 | v2 | NRG vs LOUD | NRG | 0.34 | 0.57 | lost | -1.07u |
| 2026-10-08 15:36 | h1 | 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce | Nongshim RedForce | 0.40 | 0.34 | lost | -1.00u |
| 2026-10-08 12:35 | v2 | Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce | Nongshim RedForce | 0.34 | 0.47 | lost | -0.94u |
| 2026-10-06 21:09 | h1 | 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports | G2 Esports | 0.34 | 0.35 | won | +1.81u |
Starts from the Polymarket price and adjusts it (logit P = logit(PM) + Σ β·feature, team A minus team B). Features come from VLR round-by-round + economy data: round form vs market = gun-round wins beyond what both teams' loadouts predicted, minus what that match's closing price implied; pistol luck = pistol-round win rate; last-match surprise = result minus closing price. Rules from your trades: H1 fade a favourite whose last 3 wins all came as ≥65% favourites; H3 back a proven team (avg close ≥55% over 30-180d) that lost its last match and 2 of 3, after ≥7 days off. Coefficients: v1 model vs market +0.23. Bet when v2 edge ≥ 5% on a side priced ≥0.15 with a counted quote (same gate + 1/8 Kelly as v1). Backtest: Final fit 10/6 on full round data (6,567 matches). Validation May-Aug: log-loss 0.6206 vs PM 0.6222, 237 bets at 3% edge ROI +18% (90% CI +1 to +35). Sep-Oct 2026 out-of-sample n=64: log-loss 0.5854 vs PM 0.5829, 5 bets at 5% edge ROI -100% (90% CI -100 to -100). The region-coefficient fix was applied after a first look at Sep-Oct, so that check is not clean. Round-economy, pistol, momentum and rule features all made validation worse and are off. PAPER ONLY until the forward record shows positive CLV.